Tariff uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump still hangs over the PC industry despite manufacturers navigating a "complex regulatory maze" to avoid being in the firing line over import taxes when the shooting begins.

Computers are still exempt from the levies that Trump's administration is hellbent on introducing, in the mistaken belief it will boost the American economy and not hurt local consumers or businesses that are forced to pay more for goods.

Yet the threat looms large, according to market researchers at Canalys, and this unpredictability jeopardizes the stability of the sector, it claims.

HP Inc. hastens China exit as tariffs kick a hole in its profits [1]READ MORE

"The Trump administration's evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains while casting significant uncertainty over market recovery," said principal analyst Ben Yeh. US imports of PCs have dramatically shifted away from China toward Vietnam as manufacturers seek to avoid potential tariffs.

"Although Trump's reciprocal tariffs have been delayed again, this time to [2]1 August , and PCs currently remain exempt from tariffs regardless of origin, the underlying uncertainty persists."

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The uncertainty is for businesses and consumers. Earlier in the year, the channel sought to exploit the situation by [4]bringing forward PC purchases to bulk up inventory , potentially to increase their own profit margin should incoming tariffs bump up the end price of laptop and desktops.

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According to sales-in stats collated by Canalys – shipments to distributors – notebooks, desk based systems and workstations jumped 7.4 percent year-on-year to 67.6 million units in calendar Q2. This was boosted by customers looking to migrate to Windows 11 ahead of the [7]October 14 end of support date for Windows 10.

IDC stats released this week indicate Q2 shipments at 68.4 million, up 6.5 percent, according to its own data. The regional break-up shows that the US market is "starting to feel the pinch of import tariffs," even though they haven't kicked in yet, IDC said.

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"We expected the US market to cool down this quarter given the inventory buildup to begin the year, but what we're witnessing here might highlight US PC demand slowing down in anticipation of the import tariffs looming deadline," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research veep at IDC.

"Despite a flat US PC market, the rest of the world demonstrated an appetite for PCs, fueled by an aging installed base and by a steady transition to Windows 11."

[9]Windows 11 migration heats up... on desktops

[10]Trump tariff turmoil hurting global smartphone market, but hitting US hardest

[11]Please tell us Reg: Why are AI PC sales slower than expected?

[12]Trump threatens to add formal Apple Tax on top of the 'Apple tax'

[13]Lenovo thought it could surf geopolitics, until Trump's sudden tariff changes

And what about uncertainty over tariffs from the PC producers? Yes, challenges lie ahead, said Canalys. It pointed to the US-Vietnam trade deal that set up a 20 percent tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40 percent tariff on items that are deemed to be transhipped.

"What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze," said Yeh.

"The key question is whether PCs manufactured in Vietnam using Chinese components or through Chinese-controlled operations will be classified as transshipments and face the 40 percent tariff. With enforcement criteria still undefined, market players face the reality that supply chain diversification alone may not provide the cost stability they initially sought."

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In the vendor shipment stakes, Lenovo accounted for one in four PCs sold globally into distribution, according to Canalys stats, growing unit sales by 15.2 percent year-on-year in Q2 to 16.97 million. HP grew shipments grew 3.2 percent to 14.1 million, Dell declined 3.2 percent to 9.77 million, and Apple was up 21.3 percent to 6.3 million. ®

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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/29/hp_inc_q2_2025/

[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/07/08/trump_administration_reciprocal_tariffs/

[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/channel&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aG_jlFgSB4nstdO9_2lgWQAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/10/q1_2025_pc_shipments_tariffs/

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[7] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/14/final_year_windows_10/

[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offprem/channel&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aG_jlFgSB4nstdO9_2lgWQAAAMc&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/20/windows_11_migration_heats_up/

[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/trump_tariff_turmoil_affecting_global/

[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/ai_pc_sales_analysis/

[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/26/us_apple_eu_tariffs/

[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/23/lenovo_fy2025/

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[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/