Semiconductor industry could short out as copper runs dry
- Reference: 1751995872
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/07/08/copper_supplies_climate_change/
- Source link:
According to a report out today from [1]PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), copper mines require a steady water supply to function, and many are situated in places around the world that face a growing risk of severe drought due to shifts in climate.
It takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine
Copper is almost ubiquitous in IT hardware because of its excellent electrical conductivity, from the tracks on circuit boards to cabling and even the interconnects on microchips. PwC's report focuses just on chips, and claims that nearly a third (32 percent) of global semiconductor production will be reliant on copper supplies that are at risk from climate disruption by 2035.
If something is not done to rein in climate change, like drastically cutting greenhouse gas emissions, then the share of copper supply at risk rises to 58 percent by 2050, PwC claims. As this seems increasingly unlikely, it advises both copper exporters and semiconductor buyers to adapt their supply chains and practices if they are to ride out the risk.
Currently, of the countries or territories that supply the semiconductor industry with copper, the report states that only Chile faces severe drought risks. But within a decade, copper mines in the majority of the 17 countries that source the metal will be facing severe drought risks.
[2]
PwC says there is an urgent need to strengthen supply chain resilience. Some businesses are taking action, but many investors believe companies should step up their efforts when it comes to de-risking their supply chain, the firm adds.
[3]
[4]
According to the report, mining companies can alleviate some of the supply issues by investing in desalination plants, improving water efficiency and recycling water.
Semiconductor makers could use alternative materials, diversify their suppliers, and adopt measures such as recycling and taking advantage of the circular economy.
[5]
This could be good news for telecoms operators, which have been scrapping their legacy telephone-era copper cabling in favor of optical fiber. An [6]estimate published last year reckoned there could be 800,000 metric tons of the stuff that could be harvested in the next ten years, potentially worth over $7 billion.
However, an earlier [7]report from S&P Global published in 2022 claimed that worldwide demand for the lustrous metal is likely to double from 25 million metric tons to 50 million by 2035, and the supply will not be able to keep pace.
[8]Cloud lobby warns EU: Clamp down on water rules and we'll evaporate
[9]Datacenters have a public image problem, industry confesses to The Reg
[10]Google tries to greenwash massive AI energy consumption with another vague nuclear deal
[11]Microsoft burnishes green cred by paying Swedes to burn biomass and bury CO 2
One solution would be to open more copper mines, but that takes time – 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine – meaning that any opened today would not be productive in time to accommodate the forecast spike in demand. However, recycling of copper was not expected to be enough to fill the gap either, according to S&P.
So copper is facing a double whammy of rising demand and climate change threatening the viability of supplies.
This was backed up recently by the [12]International Energy Agency (IEA) , which reckons supplies of copper will fall 30 percent short of the volume required by 2035 if nothing is done to open up new sources.
[13]
One solution is for developed countries to do more refining of copper – plus other key metals needed for industry – and form partnerships with developing countries to help open up supplies, executive director Fatih Birol told The Guardian .
Meanwhile, PwC's report prefers to highlight the need for businesses to understand the risks facing supply chains.
"We can act now by understanding and managing risks to supply, including the physical risks of climate change," commented Glenn Burm, Global Semiconductors Leader for PwC South Korea.
"Around the world, companies are adapting by boosting water production, diversifying supply chains, and strengthening climate resilience. There's great progress, but businesses can and should do more." ®
Get our [14]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.pwc.com
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aG2U9tU_gGdMXaiPCwtbLQAAAEg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aG2U9tU_gGdMXaiPCwtbLQAAAEg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aG2U9tU_gGdMXaiPCwtbLQAAAEg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aG2U9tU_gGdMXaiPCwtbLQAAAEg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2024/05/31/copper_wires_recycling/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/15/netzero_emissions_copper/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/30/cispe_eu_water_resilience/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/05/datacenters_have_a_public_image/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/07/google_signs_another_nuclear_deal/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/06/microsoft_extends_carbon_removal_agreement/
[12] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/21/copper-supply-demand-analysis-international-energy-agency
[13] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/networks&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aG2U9tU_gGdMXaiPCwtbLQAAAEg&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[14] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Self-fulfilling prophecies.
Whenever anything is pegged as likely to become scarce, everyone stockpiles, making it scarcer, sooner. By next week, the US will be planning a national copper stash. Prices will rise even faster.
The POTS should be left intact. It is a resilient system that works when the power goes down. We relied on it in two world wars and endless power cuts. It could easily be repurposed as a free internet connection for anyone who cannot afford a commercial one, low cost smart meter comms system that didn't need re-doing for billions of quid every time there was a new xG standard, and emergency phone network. Trashing it to save BT a few quid is crazy. Why do we even have stuff like SAGE if they do sweet FA to protect resilience. Have they ever ordered the construction of a reservoir, lagoon or dam? Do they do absolutely anything of value? Oh, I forgot, they are government. They don't have to be any use at all to pick up a pay cheque.
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies.
Starts plausible and then goes into tin-foil hat territory
If you're on about the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies then the clues as to why they haven't done what you want are in the name. As [1]they say:
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is convened to provide independent scientific advice to support decision-making in the Cabinet Office Briefing Room (COBR) in the event of a national emergency.
SAGE is an advisory group and does not make decisions or set policy. Its advice is limited to scientific matters and is a cross-disciplinary consensus view based on the best available evidence at the time.
So they can't do anything spontaneously; their advice has to be sought out by policy makers. They can't order anything. And their advice can be ignored (as happened during Covid).
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies/about
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies.
By next week, the US will be planning a national copper stash. Prices will rise even faster.
Stable Genius has just announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. So we're already raising our prices. I'm not sure that is what America First was supposed to mean.
Our demand will be dropping, that should ease the cost to the rest of the world though. You're welcome.
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies.
Can be replaced by raiding the gold bullion reserves. Excellent anti-oxidisation properties too.
Do it quickly before Goldfinger's lady pilots arrive.
Re: Self-fulfilling prophecies.
> a resilient system that works when the power goes down.
Only if the batteries at the exchange are kept maintained and charged. I can imagine that there is plenty of truly dead copper out there these days.
And here's me looking for 70mm2 flex cable
Thirty-five quid a meter!
Even hookup wire is ridiculously expensive.
Bah!
I think that climate change, bad as it undoubtedly is, is probably less impactful on the domestic supplies of copper that the wars being fought right now.
Bullets, shells, brass casings, bronze bearings, wiring, etc, more etc, all sucking heavily of the supply of copper teat.
In other news
Trump just announced a 50% tariff on imported copper in the US - where half of all copper is imported.
Maybe someone needs to tell him about the "16 years to develop a new mine", because our smooth brained TACO in chief probably thinks you just dig a hole and start pulling out copper ingots a month later so it will be no problem to double domestic production overnight!
Re: In other news
A month later?
I don't think he can plan that far ahead.
Trump not helping .. as usual.
Trump just decided to slap Canadian copper with 50% tariffs. We got enough to supply different markets and looking forward to doing more business elsewhere. The USA is not a major copper producer and putting a tariff on our copper is stupid as only American companies needing copper will suffer .. and that's a lot of companies. But let the boy genius impress us with his TACO routine. By now we're so used to him saying stupid things to get attention that the news about it are barely noticeable in the Canadian media. Next item for tariffs ? Clean air ! .. Why not impose a tariff on the air Americans breathe coming from Canada. Knowing him , he's certainly discussing it .. What a moron.
Re: Trump not helping .. as usual.
But Trump will tell his genius scientists at MIT to come up with a way to create the pure element CU from agave plants. Of course mezcal drinkers will protest as he will put a 50% tariff on imported tequila and all the pulped agave will by shipped from the southwest to Boston. It's about as credible as injecting bleach.
Wider context
If there's going to be a copper drought then it's not just electronics which will suffer.
Copper is vital in many more sectors than just IT. If you need to move lots of current, you need copper. Power transmission and generation, electromechanics, etc. Likewise if you need to sense things reliably, you need conductors with low resistance - medicine, research, etc. Need to TIG weld something? Very thick copper cables.
If the orange king wants to direct copper supply markets away from the USA, he's welcome to. More copper for the rest of the world!
Looking forwards to more magnetic jumper wires and unsolderable cables
Remember, before unwrapping that packet of surprisingly affordable wires (no matter the source), check it with a strong magnet (away from the croc clips, of course - just accept that they are never the most conductive items).
And check that PC power loom extension - does it seem a bit too aluminiumy? Careful with the GPU power...