Folks aren’t buying the PCs that US vendors stockpiled to dodge tariffs
- Reference: 1751372949
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/07/01/pc_united_states_shipping_figs/
- Source link:
Deliveries reaching US shores surged 15 percent in the first calendar quarter of 2025, as the channel stockpiled inventory in response to the Trump administration's threatened hike in tariffs on imports, especially on goods coming from [1]China , where most PCs are made.
This led to significant inventory buildup in America that will now need to be cleared, according to market watcher Canalys. However consumers are not biting because of several factors, including that tariffs have pushed up prices in a number of key spending categories [2]already , meaning households are likely focusing on essentials and avoiding forking out on discretionary items.
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"Consumers' appetite for big-ticket spending on PCs faces a number of downside risks. Although PCs currently remain exempt, broader tariffs impacting key spending categories have already resulted in inflationary pressure, with the Federal Reserve pausing its planned interest rate cuts in anticipation of further price rises in the remainder of the year," said research director Ishan Dutt.
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The upshot is that with retail inventory already well stocked, sales from distributors into those channels during the second half of the year is likely to be constrained.
Canalys says there is another factor, which is that consumers don't really care much about the [6]looming end of support for Windows 10 , and aren't in any hurry to upgrade before the October 14, 2025 cut-off.
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"Despite the sense of urgency driven by the Windows 10 end of service date, consumer demand in the US has remained largely unaffected," said research manager Kieren Jessop.
"This highlights a key reality: many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 end of support until it becomes a significant pain point. Consumer PC purchases tend to be largely driven by factors like poor battery life, slow performance or hardware failures," he added.
Many PC users are indifferent to the Windows 10 end of support until it becomes a significant pain point ...
And this situation is likely not helped by the vendors betting big on so-called AI PCs selling like hot cakes, despite the fact that there is [8]no killer app for these devices , they carry a premium price tag, and the industry [9]can't even agree on a standard hardware specification.
"Overwhelming specifications and unclear messaging also exacerbate the complexity of the PC buying journey," Jessop said. "For vendors and channel partners, this underscores the need to simplify the buyer experience through clear, needs-based messaging and streamlined product portfolios. The channel must proactively guide consumers through a coherent and intuitive purchasing process, helping them easily identify devices tailored to their needs."
Things are better in the commercial sector, where businesses are continuing to upgrade their fleets as the Windows 10 support deadline nears.
[10]Trump's trade war with China to cost AMD $1.5B in lost rev
[11]Red, white, and blew it? Trump tariffs may cost America the AI race
[12]China gorging on silicon before Uncle Sam slams the door
[13]Asia beat US, EU in chip building because the West didn't invest, Intel CEO claims
"The pace of transition to Windows 11 among US businesses has been a positive sign for the industry," said Dutt. "Commercial demand, particularly from SMBs, is set to accelerate in the second half of 2025 as Microsoft ramps up its awareness drive on the importance of timely refresh."
Growth in sales here will help outweigh the stagnation in consumer spending, Canalys expects. Commercial PC shipments are anticipated to grow 8 percent, it believes, in stark contrast to the 4 percent decline estimated in consumer shipments.
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Next year is set to be different, or so the industry must be hoping, with the consumer sector pegged for 6.5 percent growth, while business PC sales are slated to expand by another 4 percent. Whether this will play out is partly dependent on if the Trump administration continues to play games with tariffs. ®
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/29/economists_blame_trump_tariffs_ai/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/trump_tariff_turmoil_affecting_global/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aGQGFsyEM1n3djvC-00uiwAAAEE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aGQGFsyEM1n3djvC-00uiwAAAEE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aGQGFsyEM1n3djvC-00uiwAAAEE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/02/windows_10_grows/
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aGQGFsyEM1n3djvC-00uiwAAAEE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/ai_pc_sales_analysis/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/05/ai_pc_confusion/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/07/us_export_controls_on_instinct/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/01/abi_trump_tariffs_datacenter/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/11/china_stockpiling_chips/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2024/01/18/chips_davos_intel/
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aGQGFsyEM1n3djvC-00uiwAAAEE&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: This isn't like Windows XP
I find an increasing proportion of friends and family have a PC that spends most of its time switched off - they're mostly using mobile phones and tablets for day-to-day stuff. Not much incentive to upgrade something that gets only occasional use.
Re: This isn't like Windows XP
"for everyone else I'm willing to make a bet Win10 will be around for a while longer"
Undoubtedly. People like my sister-in-law are still on W7.
Re: This isn't like Windows XP
Co-worker mentioned a report that MS had lost 400 Million windows users over the last 3 years: Possibly people aren't keen on Win11 and are moving to other OS's, and possibly ditched the PC/Laptop in favour of a tablet or mobile, and the Windows phone (anyone remember that one?) got discontinued years ago.
Wonder if there's an uptake of tablets or mobiles to offset the drop in PC's.
Or people are just waiting to see if the tariffs get dropped. Same way that retail sales slump before a known sale starts (such as black Friday).
How to profit from Tariffs
1) Import stuff before tariffs implemented.
2) Keep stuff in stock - i.e. not on shelves.
3) After tariffs implemented, sell stuff at price including tariff.
Having explored Windows 10 within VMs on Linux, I find few virtues to extol compared to Windows 7, XP, and NT. Also, its messy arrangement for updates, and for security fixes, does not inspire confidence; a, seemingly frequent, requirement for rushed out 'fixes of fixes' is worrisome. Windows' degeneration into a marketing platform for Microsoft and its 'trusted partners' adds no gloss to its reputation. Also, its enforcement of diktat from Microsoft, at best allowing a period of 'stay of execution', is unpalatable; this bodes passage into a 'Big Brother' tool for authoritarian governments.
Windows 11, despite passable integration of Linux, is as distastefully garish as its immediate predecessors.
Appointment with a Crash Orange is Announced
Yeah, as the chronicle has foretold, the topsy-turvy looking glass catastrophic nonsense that is Incubus Orange policy is leading straight to a [1]right economic crash for folks in the US, with the $-USD now at a 4-year low vs the €-Euro, and 1-year low vs $-CAD, Japanese ¥-Yen, and Chinese ¥-Yuan ... all thanks to its nonstop tumble and fumble since Jan '25.
It should be great for the export of unprocessed natural resources ... but terrible for the import of manufactured goods -- or any import really, especially when coupled with skyrocketing import tariffs, like a self-imposed trade embargo.
Add to that the massive defunding of science and incarceration of inexpensive laborers in alligator island and you get a method for Making America Great Again that is madly reminiscent of how [2]mountaintop removal is making the Appalachian great again ... soon there will be none! (imho, and chihuahuas)
[1] https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/
[2] https://appvoices.org/end-mountaintop-removal/mtr101/
It's all going terribly well.
Upgrade? Why?
Generally, the more things you do in the cloud, the less the platform you use matters. In a way, Redmond have made a rod for their own back: by encouraging more use of online resources, they've reduced the need to keep upgrading the local platform.
Unlike the moves from 16 to 32 bit or from 32 to 64, I also suspect there's far less pressure from software vendors to run the latest OS - unless those vendors that are looking to bolt AI into their apps. Even so, most will probably want to make it a subscription service with a backend running under their control (more vendor lock-in and, actually, it probably offers better results because they can use a half decent model) - no pressing need for Win11 on the client in that case.
All told, I imagine there will be a very long tail to Win10 usage in the home market.
This isn't like Windows XP
Back when XP was retired it was a tired old OS with more holes than a block of Emmental. Windows 10 isn't in that situation. People know this. Sure there could be a widespread exploit found and enterprises know this but for everyone else I'm willing to make a bet Win10 will be around for a while longer than we saw XP past it's cut-off, despite the profit wishes of MS.