DRAM spot prices doubled last week
- Reference: 1751347989
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/07/01/dram_spot_prices_surge/
- Source link:
Market watcher DRAMeXchange [1]reports (regwalled) that the price for 16GB DDR4 3200 modules moved between $11 and $24 between June 24th and 30th, while some 8GB units moved in a band from $2.80 and $8.00.
DDR5 16G 4800/5600 prices yo-yoed between $4.55 and $9.20, which is weird because DDR5 is newer and faster than DDR4.
[2]
So why are some buyers suddenly willing to pay more for old, slow, memory?
[3]
[4]
Analyst outfit TrendForce [5]spotted several reports that claim major memory-makers are winding up DDR4 production. Japan’s Nikkei [6]reports that Chinese memory-maker CXMT has also decided DDR4’s days are nearly done, and that its move to end production of the memory in 2026 surprised markets.
Buyers are therefore willing to pay for product they feel may not be around for much longer.
[7]
Another possible reason is the July 9th end of the USA’s pause on its reciprocal tariff plan, which will see the cost of imports from major memory-making countries such as China and South Korea increase. Perhaps buyers are therefore grabbing all the memory they can get their hands on before tariffs increase.
And fair enough given that the cost of memory can sometimes be the biggest single contributor to the price of a server, and the prevalence of DDR4 in many other devices.
[8]NAND flash prices plunge amid supply glut, factory output cut
[9]US biz stockpilers boost SK Hynix top line as memory market undergoes structural change
[10]Trump tariff turmoil hurting global smartphone market, but hitting US hardest
[11]AMD secure VM tech undone by DRAM meddling
Recent memory price surges don’t necessarily mean hardware prices will soon increase. That’s because spot prices are the amount required to make an immediate purchase of a commodity, and big buyers typically strike long-term deals that allow them to lock in steady pricing.
Buyers are willing to pay spot prices when they are unusually low and they sniff future profits, or because they simply must get their hands on a product and have no alternative but to pay a premium. ®
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[1] https://www.dramexchange.com/Price/Dram_Spot
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aGOxunGpnDfy2IxKkaV2RwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aGOxunGpnDfy2IxKkaV2RwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aGOxunGpnDfy2IxKkaV2RwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/06/30/news-ddr4-spot-prices-reportedly-double-as-chinas-memory-maker-rumored-to-phase-out-production-by-2026/
[6] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/DRAM-spot-prices-double-on-reports-of-China-DDR4-phaseout
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/systems&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aGOxunGpnDfy2IxKkaV2RwAAABQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/17/nand_flash_prices/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/24/sk_hynix_gets_revenue_boost/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/04/trump_tariff_turmoil_affecting_global/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/12/10/amd_secure_vm_tech_undone/
[12] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Surprising if DDR4 production is completely winding down, given you can still find a fair amount of brand new kit out there that hasn't moved to DDR5 yet.
Then again for 99% of users does DDR5's speed boost actually bring any noticeable benefit?
Winding down just means that, reducing the supply slightly (and probably shifting it to DDR5, hence the low prices there). It's inevitable, supply and demand won't track each other perfectly, and there will be big shifts in adjustment with each wind-down.
It's also slightly self-fulfilling prophecy - the shift of manufacturing efforts from DDR 4 to 5 will lower supply on DDR4, raising prices as a result, but equally will raise supply of DDR5 and lower those prices - as a result consumers will start shifting to DDR5. Again, changing the price dynamics and causing DDR4 production to take another ramp-down.
You're right, DDR5 probably isn't required for most users. But it will be if it's cheaper.
Low-Overhead OSes May Extend Useful Life of Older Hardware
See title.
But that said, running a low-overhead OS won't help enough if you're running RAM-hungry software, as I presume things like Oracle DBs and SAP are.
All those refurbished Win10/Win11 incompatible machines dumped on the market ...
will need DDR4.
They normally ship with 8Gb but being fairly recently spec'd ex govt/business machines can benefit from more memory.
I just recently put 4x8Gb DDR in such an older small form factor box so that it can run a couple of Proxmox VMs. I don't think the price had increased any more than the currency fluctuations. Mainly finding the slower clock but lower CAS latency for that particular box was the main difficulty. 3200 CL22 was more common than the 2666 CL19 part.
I just checked with one of larger retailers sites (in AU) and looks like their entire stock of DDR4 parts has been grabbed in the panic. :) The smaller retailer whence I sourced my parts still has most items in stock. I might guess the PC refurbishers might have snaffled the DDR4 parts from the wholesalers.
Servers typically use larger ECC parts which are massively more costly than non ECC parts at least retail. I was fortunate when I purchased a refurbished Xeon workstation that I could double its ECC ram for a small fraction of new part's cost. (Presumably parts scavanged from defective workstations.)
This is a temporary shortage before DDR4 becomes completely irrelevant and cheap as dirt.
Has happened many times before.