Please tell us Reg: Why are AI PC sales slower than expected?
- Reference: 1749040574
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/06/04/ai_pc_sales_analysis/
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the commercial segment in particular is still figuring out what AI overall can do for them, what apps are relevant, how exactly they can benefit but also what they are actually allowed to use when it comes to security
To some extent, Lenovo, HP, Dell, and the other major brands are forcing the situation by driving more and more of these machines into sales channels, meaning PC buyers will find it harder to avoid buying so-called AI devices (hardware that integrates an NPU). Two in five notebooks sold via distribution in early Q2 were AI PCs, according to Context.
Copilot+ PCs? Customers just aren't buying it – yet [1]READ MORE
Marie-Christine Pygott, senior analyst for Personal Systems at Context, told The Register that "demand is pretty slow" due to a combination of reasons.
"The biggest issue is still the lack of a killer app or software that justifies the investment," she said. "Linked to that is the fact that the commercial segment in particular is still figuring out what AI overall can do for them, what apps are relevant, how exactly they can benefit but also what they are actually allowed to use when it comes to security, so it is still pretty early days for the whole AI topic."
The "next issue" pertains to the "slow economic recovery we have seen across most European markets, exacerbated by [2]tariff uncertainty ," said Pygott.
"We are hearing that a lot of smaller organizations in particular are cautious with spending in light of increased uncertainty. Plus, things in the AI PC segment are changing very quickly, so we are told some organizations have decided to wait until things become clearer and prices go down before investing in an AI PC."
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Directions on Microsoft previously warned the incoming wave of AI meant [4]buying a PC was riskier as there is no current standard for the software to work with.
[5]
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It is certainly true that the tech "industry has been distracted with the trade war lately," Bryan Ma, IDC Vice President of Client Devices, stated last week following his visit to the Computex trade show in Taiwan.
"Indeed, many of my conversations this year have led with a [7]tariff discussion rather than AI PCs. We think that AI PC adoption will hit some speedbumps due to the volatility around tariffs, especially if buyers are under pressure to buy cheaper products in light of economic uncertainty."
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He added: "The lack of big use cases does makes one further wonder whether the momentum around AI PCs has stalled." Even Microsoft boss [9]Satya Nadella has admitted this .
Gartner told The Register in late 2024 that [10]price was going to be the soft underbelly of AI PCs and forecast a drop amid customer reluctance to spend more on kit without an obvious reason to do so.
[11]ASUS to chase business PC market with free AI, or no AI - because nobody knows what to do with it
[12]Windows isn't an OS, it's a bad habit that wants to become an addiction
[13]Trump tariffs forcing rethink of PC purchases stateside
[14]Buying a PC for local AI? These are the specs that actually matter
[15]Microsoft, PC makers cut prices of Copilot+ gear in Europe, analyst stats confirm
"Now the internal environment (tariffs and increased pricing) together with the external environment (economic outlook, exchange rates etc) is creating unprecedented uncertainty," Ranjit Atwal, research director told us today.
He said some procurement heads in corporate enterprises are effectively hitting the pause button on purchasing PCs. "That will have a significant impact on AI PC buying, which is an upsell."
Despite all the barriers, Pygott at Context says the adoption of AI PCs is gradually going up, "driven largely by next-gen product rollouts and the fact that an increasing number of products now come standard with an NPU."
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Microsoft, for example, is [17]heavily leaning on the 13,000 + third party suppliers to get behind Copilot and Copilot + PCs, while Lenovo, HP and Dell promote their own AI machines.
On a recent earnings call, Dell COO Jeff Clarke said: "While the [18]PC refresh remains behind prior cycles , we are seeing indicators that the installed base is upgrading to new Windows 11 PCs, many of them AI PCs."
HP CEO Enrique Lores also put his best foot forward on a recent conference call to discuss its [19]latest financial results , saying "we are very pleased with the progress" the company is making with its systems, with the sales mix of AI PCs expected to be 25 percent by the end of the year.
"In terms of key applications, what we have seen is a large number of software companies introducing solutions that utilize the capabilities of AI PC. We have more than 100 ISVs supporting that now… this is why we think that the penetration is going to continue to grow."
Lores said the devices are around 10 to 20 percent higher priced than "regular PCs," and HP thinks the form factor will account for 50 percent of its portfolio in two years.
AI PCs will dominate shipments by 2026, but not because of demand [20]READ MORE
Lenovo is planning to launch agentic AI worldwide in the coming quarters, Luca Rossi, President of Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group, said on a conference call to discuss its [21]financial results last month . One of the features, according to Lenovo, is Action Assistant, which automates multi-step tasks by "transforming natural language into actionable steps, streamlining workflows for professionals."
The devices will have "features that we believe over time will wow customers," said Rossi.
The only thing that seems be causing this level of surprise at present in the price tag of AI PCs from all the major vendors.
Pygott told us:
"The average price for a traditional notebook in Europe in early Q2 was €500 vs. €1,000 for an AI-capable notebook.
"Please note that this is an average, so the non-AI will also include very low end products like education notebooks, for example. If we look at purely NPU vs. non-NPU based products, my estimate is that the price difference would be around 15 percent."
For customers moving fleets of existing PCs off Windows 10, that may be a bridge too far and they may decide to pay Microsoft the extra support costs. Beancounters at companies yet to migrate are no doubt already counting the beans. ®
Get our [22]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/06/ai_copilot_pc_sales/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/02/trump_tariff_pc_prices/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aEBtiBBCeO-dBT7NU2iMaAAAAQs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/01/incoming_wave_of_ai_pcs/
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aEBtiBBCeO-dBT7NU2iMaAAAAQs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aEBtiBBCeO-dBT7NU2iMaAAAAQs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/03/19/tariffs_tech_channel_uncertainty/
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aEBtiBBCeO-dBT7NU2iMaAAAAQs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/26/microsofts_nadella_wants_to_see/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/22/premium_priced_ai_pcs/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/28/asus_business_pc_plans/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/28/windows_opinion/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/27/trump_tariffs_pc_purchases/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/25/ai_pc_buying_guide/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/14/ai_pcs_europe_sales/
[16] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/aiml&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aEBtiBBCeO-dBT7NU2iMaAAAAQs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2024/11/29/microsoft_preps_big_guns_for/
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/13/win_11_refreshes_delayed_pc_makers/
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/29/hp_inc_q2_2025/
[20] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/25/analysts_ai_pcs_shipments_gartner/
[21] https://www.theregister.com/2025/05/23/lenovo_fy2025/
[22] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
There are on-demand LLMs available on the web for people who need them, that are far more capable than the integrated OS ones and they can do far more than be a little over the shoulder helper.
Re: Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
Just to pile on what cyberdemon posted: the folks who are most likely to buy one of these behemoths, are also the ones most likely to understand that "AI', such as it is these days, is unmitigated shit(e), and so have no motivation (and also know better than) to spend money on these things.
And besides, these things also don't even make good gaming machines. So what's the point?
Re: Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
The ones the vendors think are most likely to buy then are those who think they're unmitigated shite. The ones actually likely to buy them are those who don't know any better, believe what the salesman says and think they need what the salesman's telling them it will do. And then can get the budget signed off if they need to. That probably leaves the usual suspects - the senior executives whose PAs handle their email - as the largest group.
Re: Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
I'd suggest the people most likely to buy an AI PC know nothing about computers. Your CEOs, CFOs, management and non-IT workers.
Re: Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
You left out "unreliable" and "untrustworthy".
We all know what'll happen
They'll just remove PCs without AI from sale so you've no choice but to buy one and then put out a statement that everyone is buying AI PCs after all therfore we're all desperate for the tech-bros to have our data to keep the AI train rolling.
The problem to me now is that everything comes with so much added shit yet in such a low quality package that I no longer want to buy anything. Cars? Expensive yet full of cheap electronics and even cheaper plastics. Laptops? full of added advertising cruft, shit OSs and now they've added AI that does nothing but up the price down the battery and steal my data. Flying? Assuming you get to survive the flight on a cut price dev Boeing, now you get to stand, booking is full of dark patterns, and you're abandoned if there is an issue. Clothes? All Temu standard now and disintegrate on the first wash etc etc
Re: We all know what'll happen
In general - whole hearted agreement. These days things are designed down to a price rather than up to a quality.
>>Clothes? All Temu standard now and disintegrate on the first wash
Now you are being a trifle unfair to Temu here. Some Temu clothing is quite high quality - SWMBO has several T-Shirts that have survived her use and abuse for more than a Year! - the trouble is telling 'good' from 'bad'.
OK nothing on Temu matches my well worn gig T-Shirt from 1988/89. That shirt is still almost completely intact, with the usual deliberate holes, and only one or two others. It may be a little translucent these days but has proven to be well worth the money I paid for it
Re: We all know what'll happen
I have a Watsons Heavies t-shirt I was given for Christmas in 1991 and is pretty much the same as it was. Every time I wear it I'm reminded that a) if you make clothes out of good quality heavy-duty fabrics they can last incredibly well, b) most modern clothes are not made out of good quality fabric, and c) fashionable t-shirts in the early nineties were massive.
I don't know that the company made it into this century - the downside of making clothes tough enough that they never need replacing one supposes.
Re: We all know what'll happen
"and c) fashionable t-shirts in the early nineties were massive."
It's you. You've shrunk.
Re: We all know what'll happen
Fruit loom and guildian rule
Re: We all know what'll happen
AC, you've just defined enshittification to a T.
Re: We all know what'll happen
I know, once you've read about enshittification you can't stop seeing it everywhere.
Re: We all know what'll happen
"Expensive yet full of cheap electronics and even cheaper plastics."
And even worse software.
What is the use case for these? To me, it still isn't clear. I don't use AI at all, but my wife does use ChatGPT at times - however she doesn't need an "AI PC" to use that.
I'm still waiting for a big app or a big use-case/clear benefit from having an NPU on your PC. And no, that abomination known as Recall doesn't count!
To me, it's just another case of a solution looking for a problem...
If it helps create deepfakes and other even more nefarious media then there is likely a market for it amongst a certain group
And yet you never see that mentioned in the advertising blurbs!
Missing a trick then aren't they? AI pushers obviously need better marketing people!
Unlike ChatGPT which is an on demand thing that you have to prompt, on PCs it can be involved in what you are doing, and help you do it.
For example, it can summarise your recent emails, or it can check the document you have open, read a long document and summarise it.
It can create content for you or help you set up a pivot table, just a few examples.
Today I asked ChatGPT to make me a logo for a software business and it made an impressive one. However, there were similar found when I did google image search with it.
Of course ChatGPT designed a logo similar to existing logos. That's how "AI" works - it's all about statistics and pattern matching.
It's really good for generating plausible-looking output. That's all that it does. Be careful not to think there is any "intelligence" involved.
Macs
All new Macs since late 2020 have had an NPU, and AI has really been a great differentiator for Apple. Just not the way they had hoped for …
Waiting for someone clever to exploit all these NPUs with some kind of crypto-mining botnet...
High end laptops are a problem, not a solution
The whole point of a laptop is to be portable. This means they will be out in the real world with muggers. A high price turns a laptop into a mugger magnet. There are three features I will pay for:
1) Sturdy enough to use as a weapon.
2) Light enough that I can still flee from a concussed mugger.
3) A reasonable xorg server so if I need some difficult computing done I can ssh to something far enough away that the fan noise does not bother me.
I understand my requirements are strongly counter to the manufacturers. They are look for ways to increase the price and fragility. We parted company years ago and I doubt we will become best friends again. These days I can bolt a keyboard, mouse, battery, portable monitor and a raspberry pi to a brief case. As a bonus I can swap parts as required instead of having to replace everything in one go - including the parts that still work fine.
Re: High end laptops are a problem, not a solution
I miss my VAIO T2... While it didn't meet the first requirement
Well it definitely met #2, being 1.2Kg at a time when laptops were usually around 3Kg and met #3 since that was one of the reasons why I bought it : being able to X-Window/SSH for a whole day without havig to plug it ad far enough from the back of the servers to avoid edig up with a cold... whiole being small enough to be put on top of stuff where a regular laptop (at that time) wouldn't fit and light enough to be carried around for hours.
Sadly the fondleslabs killed that kind of laptops and it's impossible nowadays to find a decent 10 or 11" laptop (well it's impossible to find any 10 or 11" laptop)
Re: High end laptops are a problem, not a solution
Kindof sometimes. I got a laptop when I had to live for a while in a place with not much room. Having a laptop form factor took up less space both when using and when not. Real portability was not a consideration and as such I got a heavy workstation type desktop replacment which was only portable in theory. Lot of people have laptops not for portabilioty be to avoid have a number of large boxes taking up space permanently.
" customer adoption is slower than expected."
That depends on who's doing the expecting.
Because nobody wants AI in their PC?
See icon
For people who like AI, the local NPU/GPU can't run the larger models anyway, so it's a bit useless
And for those of us who despise AI with a deep-seated hatred, the NPU is nothing more than an embedded spy-chip, enabling creepy, privacy-breaking "features" that nobody in their right mind would ever want, such as Recall