70-knot winds blamed for yacht disaster that killed Brit tech tycoon Mike Lynch
- Reference: 1747309341
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/05/15/bayesian_mike_lynch_investigation/
- Source link:
The founder of search software biz Autonomy was [1]reported missing after the luxury yacht sank off the coast of Sicily on August 19 last year. His body was found [2]two days later . The tragedy came just weeks after Lynch was [3]acquitted in the US of criminal fraud and conspiracy charges relating to the acquisition of Autonomy by what was then Hewlett Packard (HP) in 2011.
The [4]report [PDF] states that studies into the yacht have calculated that if wind was blowing directly onto Bayesian's beam and the vessel was in the "motoring" condition, a gusting wind in excess of 63.4 knots would "likely result in the vessel capsizing, irrespective of any interactions and blanketing effects."
[5]
At the time of the ship's foundering, it was reported that the wind speed had suddenly increased to more than 70 knots due to an approaching storm. The timeline established by the interim report shows how quickly it happened, with Bayesian starting to drag its anchor at 03:57 local time and violently heeling over to starboard at 04:06 – just nine minutes later.
[6]
[7]
In a statement, MAIB Chief Inspector Andrew Moll OBE said: "The interim report presents a desktop study of the facts as we know them. The study has reviewed the yacht's stability, the likely local weather conditions at the time, and the effect of that weather on the yacht. The findings indicate that the extreme wind experienced by Bayesian was sufficient to knock the yacht over. Further, once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70°, the situation was irrecoverable."
[8]HPE CEO: 'Best interest of shareholders' to pursue $4B damages from Lynch estate
[9]HPE to pursue $4B claim against estate of Mike Lynch over Autonomy acquisition
[10]UK tech pioneer Mike Lynch dead at 59
[11]Body of IT tycoon Mike Lynch recovered after superyacht sinks
However, the report also notes that investigation is ongoing, and that an examination of the wreck of the yacht, when salvaged, should provide a better understanding of the yacht's actual condition at the time of loss, and validate or improve the theoretical assessment already conducted.
The report states that until the investigative work is complete and the final report is published, these interim findings should be considered indicative, not conclusive.
Although Lynch and Autonomy's former VP of finance, Stephen Chamberlain, were both cleared of unlawfully inflating the company's value prior to its acquisition in a US court case, HP's successor, HPE, has indicated that it will [12]pursue Lynch's estate for $4 billion in damages it sought from him following an earlier UK civil trial in 2022 that [13]found in favor of the company's claims .
[14]
HPE chief exec Antonio Neri [15]defended this move , saying that the company has to pursue its multibillion claim against Mike Lynch's estate because it is "in the best interest of shareholders." ®
Get our [16]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/19/mike_lynch_missing_yacht/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/21/mike_lynch_death/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/06/mike_lynch_cleared/
[4] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6821ea1aced319d02c9060f2/2025-Bayesian-InterimReport.pdf
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aCYPnEfyKu-dPv7f3h6NYgAAAkQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aCYPnEfyKu-dPv7f3h6NYgAAAkQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aCYPnEfyKu-dPv7f3h6NYgAAAkQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/16/hpe_lynch_damages/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/02/hpe_mike_lynch_damages/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/21/mike_lynch_death/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/21/mike_lynch_yacht_death/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/02/hpe_mike_lynch_damages/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/28/hpe_multibillion_fraud_trial_mike_lynch_autonomy/
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_software/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aCYPnEfyKu-dPv7f3h6NYgAAAkQ&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/16/hpe_lynch_damages/
[16] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Wrong Target....
HP chose to buy Automony before the due diligence report they had commissioned was even finished. The CEO also admitted in court that he hadn't even read the draft report they'd written.
The problem with Autonomy was that the product doesn't seem to have been all that special - which was down to HP's sales team to know their own bloody market. HP had their own competing software when they bought it. They'd have done much better if they'd invested $5bn into that - and spent the other $5bn on a massive pissup for all HP staff worldwide. And probably even better still if they'd done nothing, and not wasted $10bn in the first place.
Re: Wrong Target....
Exactly. This was and always has been HP's own fault.
Re: Wrong Target....
"If my chartered surveyor tells me the house is okay to buy and it crumbles beneath my feet, I don't target the seller"
Which is why any surveyor's report will be written in dry, factual, non committal language and unlikely to include such clear cut and accountable terms like "it's okay".
Friendly reminder that, “But you should have caught my crooked accounting!” is not a valid defense for said crooked accounting.
Acquitted...
Friendly reminder that he was acquitted of the charges laid against him in the US. Meaning that the prosecution's claims of crooked accounting failed to convince the jury.
70-knot winds blamed for yacht disaster that killed Brit tech tycoon Mike Lynch
is technically correct, but the real reason seems to have been poor boat design that could not handle 70 knot winds.
I haven't yet seen any comment as to whether the keel was up or down at the time. Perhaps they don't know until they salvage the hull.
whether the keel was up or down at the time.
[1]The interim report (linked in the article!) indicates it was up.
They note that the Stability Information Book had data for lowering the centreboard when under sail but not in a motoring condition, which seems like an oversight by the builder.
[1] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6821ea1aced319d02c9060f2/2025-Bayesian-InterimReport.pdf
The report says that it was up when they anchored, and no change to that is mentioned. A lot of other details are mentioned, like starting generators and pumps in preparation for manoeuvring, so it seems unlikely it changed. Crew from similar yachts have said this would be normal when anchored at night. There's a lot more detail in the report - if you're interested I suggest reading it.
Or even just 40 mph steady winds from the beam.
Though if the Bayesian had a bow anchor out, I'd have expected the anchor to hold its bow to the storm, even if the anchor was dragging. The model of "apparent wind angle" vs "wind speed" doesn't say what actually happened.
The wind being suddenly gusty means the vessel didn't have time to reorient.
Predictive Modeling???
Only if there was some modeling method they could have used to predict the likelihood of extreme weather events and the vessel’s structural limits...
Re: Predictive Modeling???
What witchcraft is this?!!!
Re: Predictive Modeling???
How common is 70 knot (=130 kmh, more or less) wind in the Mediterranean? I have no idea, personally.
Wrong Target....
Perhaps HP should target KPMG, Black Duck and Freshfields, who conducted due diligence on Autonomy
If my chartered surveyor tells me the house is okay to buy and it crumbles beneath my feet, I don't target the seller