Tesla's Optimus can't roll without rare earth magnets, and Beijing ain't budging yet
- Reference: 1745425929
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/04/23/tesla_optimus_china/
- Source link:
During an earnings call following Tesla's lackluster calendar [1]Q1 results in which revenue slumped 20 percent to $12.925 billion and net income plunged 70 percent year-on-year to $420 million, Musk talked of difficulties in obtaining rare earth magnets used in robot motors.
"We're working through that with China," he said. "Hopefully, we'll get a license to use the rare earth magnets. China wants assurances that these are not used for military purposes, which obviously they're not. They're just going into a humanoid robot. So that's not a weapon system."
[2]
"There's not like an existing supply chain for the motors, gearboxes, electronics, actuators, really anything in the Optimus apart from the AI4, the Tesla AI computer, which is the same as the one in the car.
[3]
[4]
"So when you have a new complex manufactured product, it will move as fast as the slowest and least lucky component in the entire thing. And for approximation, there's like 10,000 unique things."
The billionaire, who previously [5]predicted that a Tesla car would be able to make a driverless trip from Los Angeles to New York, said on the call: "Anyone you tells you they can predict with precision, the production ramp of the truly new product – doesn't know what they're talking about."
[6]Tesla's big reveal: Steering-wheel-free Robotaxi will charge wirelessly
[7]Musk deflects sluggish Tesla car sales with Optimus optimism
[8]Downward DOGE: Elon Musk keeps revising cost-trimming goals in a familiar pattern
[9]Tesla has a lot of work to do on its Optimus robot
Musk has grand plans for the Tesla bot and told investors that thousands of them would be produced "by the end of this year."
Limited production of Optimus – around 5,000 units – will see the robots used internally in Tesla factories. Another run is scheduled for 2026 and these may be sold to paying customers.
[10]
As for predicting the robot's wider production ramp – even with the supply chain issues – Musk said: "I feel confident in getting to a million units per year in less than five years. So, by 2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029."
Musk, who also confirmed in the call that he would be [11]reducing his DOGE duties , has said Optimus will eventually be a bigger earner for Tesla than the company's self-driving vehicles.
Considering the company's [12]recent trajectory , this might not be as much of an achievement as it once appeared. ®
Get our [13]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025018911/tsla-20250331.htm
[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2aAljDZ7sa6JUvdGChK02xQAAAFU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aAljDZ7sa6JUvdGChK02xQAAAFU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33aAljDZ7sa6JUvdGChK02xQAAAFU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/11/tesla_robotaxi_robovan_arrive/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2024/07/24/tesla_q2_2024/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/20/musks_doge_promises_fail/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/03/tesla_optimus_prototype/
[10] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/front&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44aAljDZ7sa6JUvdGChK02xQAAAFU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/22/elon_musk_doge/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/06/europe_uk_tesla_sales/
[13] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: What will China want in return?
Where "humanoid robot" means " [1]some guy in spandex ". Can nobody in the US make spandex any more?
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4
Re: What will China want in return?
Thank Heavens that nobody has ever designed weapons to be carried by humanoids.
Re: What will China want in return?
I just find it amusing that mere weeks after Muscolini was promising "millions" of them in a year or two, he suddenly has an excuse to ship none .
Convenient, eh?
Re: What will China want in return?
He's been reading "The Art of the Deal" - Trump himself is now finding excuses for his ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours
Re: What will China want in return?
What war in Ukraine? Have I missed a meeting?
Faux News told us The Donald ended that within minutes of him taking office, just before he was awarded the Nobel Prizes for Peace and Medicine, cured cancer, solved global warming and won the Superbowl.
Re: What will China want in return?
To **HELL** with CCP China!!!
U.S. Dept of Interior is currently HYPER-FOCUSED on [1]green-lighting DOMESTIC sources for all of that.
CCP will see PLENTY of BATTLE DROIDS (OURS, not theirs) in the near-enough future, made 100% in the USA.
And we won't let the CCP STEAL the I.P. on them, either!!! Good luck actually INVENTING THINGS under COMMUNIST OPPRESSION!
[if the CCP tries to control/manipulate US, they'll **LOSE** **EVERYTHING** from their #1 market - enjoy your economic depression, CCP!]
[1] https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/trump-administration-adds-key-mining-projects-fast-41
Re: What will China want in return?
Dear God! I think that you need to start taking your dried frog pills again.
Or stop reading Trump's social media posts.
They look as if they are contagious.
What sentence ever needed three exclamation marks?
Re: What will China want in return?
"Or stop reading Trump's social media posts."
Maybe "bombastic bob" is Donald's handle on this site?
Obvious synergy
Optimus robot to drive RoboTaxi from New York to LA
Re: Obvious synergy
Will said robot be wearing spandex?
Re: Obvious synergy
Subject to supply chain/tariff issues being resolved for Spandex supplied by China
Oh the irony...
It will be highly entertaining if the Musky One's rare earth difficulties have been complicated by DOGE mass-firings in the government departments who process import paperwork, collect tariff payments, check incoming materials at the border, etc, etc.
Re: Oh the irony...
I see you are one of the few who have thought this through.
Have my upvote.
Re: Oh the irony...
@R Soul & @ecofeco
Have some beer - though, if you are a left pondian, I can only offer you import tariff free US beer - not the imported stuff from Europe
Re: Oh the irony...
DOGE is probably making DOMESTIC sources of rare earths easier to mine, by eliminating the multiple layers of CRAPPY RED TAPE that has kep mining uinterests at bay for OVER 20 YEARS! [I posted a link in another response, [1]HERE IT IS again]
[1] https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/trump-administration-adds-key-mining-projects-fast-41
Re: Oh the irony...
"DOGE is probably making DOMESTIC sources of rare earths easier to mine, by eliminating the multiple layers of CRAPPY RED TAPE that has kep mining uinterests at bay for OVER 20 YEARS!"
That Fast-41 list includes no mining or geological exploration projects related the metals needed for magnets. It's mostly lithium for batteries.
Market size predictions
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"So, by 2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year." -- Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, 2025
With Tesla . . .
I envision something like [1]this.
[1] https://pbfcomics.com/comics/disassemble/
Re: With Tesla . . .
Yeah, I'd be careful using them to [1]sort produce as well, but they could be useful for cleaning [2]35-foot-long ovens in tuna canning plants, or managing [3]meat grinders in pet food factories ... anything more stimulating than [4]security guard or [5]administrative duties that might just encourage them to " end it all " on their own ...
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/09/robot_kills_employee/
[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/man-cooked-alive-with-12-000-pounds-of-tuna-10210038.html
[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/weird-news/man-dies-after-becoming-glued-to-meat-grinder-10213233.html
[4] https://www.extremetech.com/computing/252600-security-robot-takes-life-dc-fountain-tragedy
[5] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240626-s-korea-administrative-robot-defunct-after-apparent-suicide
Sounds like he's starting to find excuses for not selling the millions Optimus he predicted
Must be one of them Panicans.
He just needs to deal with some short term pain and then the winning will start rolling in!
Robots used internally in Tesla factories.
"For internal use only, take with a glass of water".
It may be hard to swallow, but soon Tesla factory workers will no longer be trying to organise unions, asking awkward questions about the boss's compensation package or otherwise being anything other than perfect employees. They'll even start to wear the same size work boots, allowing the company to save by bulk purchase.
Although the staff canteen will have to close due to lack of sales, the company will still be holding Friday movie nights: this week, "Terminator", next week "Saturn 3". Family Special nights in May will be "Demon Seed" and "The Stepford Wives". Attendance - compulsory.
Re: Robots used internally in Tesla factories.
I'm old enough to remember the first Elon promises of an automated auto factory and how well that worked. Will Elon once again bring the company to the brink of bankruptcy trying to do it again, this time with humanoid robots instead of the industrial robots everybody else uses in their factories?
The thing with robotics in a factory environment is the don't need to have flexibility. They can be designed and configured to do a very specific task since they'll be doing that task almost continuously. Even tasks that only run 50% of the time can be well served by dedicated automation. If those tasks are building a sub-assembly, the output can be increased with the assembly being sent to another factory that will then not need the capability to make the thing in-house. I have tools that I don't use that often that are cheaper for me to own. They are there when I need them, renting them isn't an option for various reasons and paying somebody else to do the task would cost more over time than just having the thing sitting in my garage. I approached the same decisions with my manufacturing company the same way. I outsourced a lot of machining as the cost to gear up for it didn't have any ROI. Some tasks were so unique to the products that we made that there was no way to outsource the work and other tasks had schedules that were difficult to get on a calendar and could hold up production significantly if we couldn't do them in-house as/when required. 100% utilization returned nothing. It's like the Shop Smith all-in-one woodworking machines that can be configured for all sorts of things. Jack of all trades, master of none. If you have nothing but a tiny shed, maybe it works. I'd never get one and I see them often enough at estate sales with very low mileage.
Come on Elon
Surely a man of your undoubted brilliance would be able to design and make them yourself... and betterer than anybody else.
Tech support?
Are the Optimus robots going to have the same level of product support as the Cybertruck? Essentially, "Not used as intended; warranty voided." Do you get banned from Xtter if you discuss flaws in the product? Do you have to publicly kiss Elon's ass to cut ahead in the 6 month repair queue? Even cellphone manufacturers would cringe at Tesla's support.
Re: Tech support?
After so thoroughly trashing any good will he may have had left with his fascist, Trumpian wrecking spree. any business within Musks orbit now will be regarded as suspect, toxic, hyped up shite.
Re: Tech support?
Just like the Cybertruck, probably should keep Optimus away from water
What will China want in return?
"with authorities reportedly demanding an export license and guarantees about military applications."
Karma?
I think the US will have to give some, rather, a lot of, concessions in return before getting the stuff they need from China.
Musk:
"They're just going into a humanoid robot. So that's not a weapon system."
Who knows where these magnets and motors end up. It is not that Americans (wherever they were born) have much credit or trust left with the Chinese.