UK officials insist 'murder prediction tool' algorithms purely abstract
(2025/04/09)
- Reference: 1744205648
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/04/09/uks_ministry_of_justice_algorithm_murders/
- Source link:
The UK's justice department has confirmed it is working on developing algorithms to predict which criminals will later become murderers.
It was internally referred to as the Homicide Prediction Project, and was first discovered via Freedom of Information (FOI) requests filed by civil liberties group Statewatch, which [1]uncovered the project . More recently, the study was dubbed "the murder prediction program" by [2]The Guardian , which first reported the story.
Sources told The Register the project is an expansion of existing risk-prediction tools that are already used to predict the possibility of criminals reoffending when approaching prison release, for example. They said this is a long-established practice, with the Offender Assessment System (OASys) one example of this. Introduced in 2001, it uses data to predict reoffending rates and the OAS outcomes inform criminal sentencing and prison block categorizations, with recent [3]research [PDF] stating OASys-linked predictors can be reliable.
Theory or practice?
Critics, however, are concerned that the information used to develop the new "murder prediction" tool includes data on up to half a million people, some of whom are innocent of any crime, and are worried about its potential for bias.
And while officials insist this remains a research project only at present, and claim commentary around the discovery is over-sensationalized, Statewatch says its documents refer to the "future operationalization" of the system.
[4]
Statewatch went on to say the documents it obtained – an MoJ Data Protection Impact Assessment, an Internal Risk Assessment and a Data Sharing Agreement with Greater Manchester Police – referred to the MoJ's data science team developing models to understand "the powerful predictors in the data for homicide risk."
[5]
[6]
The Register has asked the MoJ for comment.
Project involves two largest police forces in the country
The project involves bringing new partners and data streams into the fold to fortify the data used by these models. Data from the MoJ, [7]Home Office , [8]Greater Manchester Police , and London's Metropolitan Police are all allegedly informing new predictors, while West Midlands Police was also approached.
According to Statewatch, types of data the homicide prediction project looks at include those related to: Suspects, victims, witnesses, missing people, people for whom there are safeguarding concerns, and other vulnerable individuals.
The MoJ documents stated that health marker data was expected to give "significant predictive power" to the models, with factors like mental health, addiction, self-harm, suicide, vulnerability, and disability all informing homicide predictions.
[9]
Previous data informing homicide predictions, [10]published in 2023 [PDF], looked at data such as ethnicity to predict offending rates. Data from [11]2020 [PDF] noted that the majority of UK homicide victims and suspects were white.
People of all ethnicities from more deprived areas as well as Black people specifically are "significantly over-represented" in the data the Ministry of Justice holds and used for this analysis of homicide, says Statewatch, which adds that data-driven "predictive" models discriminate against racialized communities, "reinforcing the structural discrimination of the criminal justice system."
Greater Manchester Police's internal data protection impact assessment (DPIA) of the project, obtained by Statewatch, shows the algorithms will incorporate police data such as names, dates of birth, genders, ethnicities, and police national computer (PNC) numbers to produce probabilistic matches.
[12]
It expected between 100,001 and 500,000 records to be processed as part of the project and the data was [13]encrypted at rest and in transfer, and [14]MFA was used to access relevant systems.
Commissioned by Rishi Sunak's government in January 2023, internal project timelines showed the research project was due to end in December 2024, at which point the research data would be deleted and the findings presented to stakeholders.
Statewatch researcher Sofia Lyall said the discovery of the Homicide Prediction Project is "chilling and dystopian."
"Time and again, research shows that algorithmic systems for 'predicting' crime are inherently flawed," she said. "Yet the government is pushing ahead with AI systems that will profile people as criminals before they've done anything.
[15]Facebook apologises after its AI system branded Black people as primates
[16]Leaked: List of police, govt, uni orgs in Clearview AI's facial-recognition trials
[17]Twitter: Our AI image-cropping algorithm is biased toward White people, women
[18]Surprise, surprise: AI cameras sold to schools in New York struggle with people of color and are full of false positives
"This latest model, which uses data from our institutionally racist police and Home Office, will reinforce and magnify the structural discrimination underpinning the criminal legal system. Like other systems of its kind, it will code in bias towards racialized and low-income communities. Building automated tools to profile people as violent criminals is deeply wrong, and using such sensitive data on mental health, addiction, and disability is highly intrusive and alarming.
"The Ministry of Justice must immediately halt further development of this murder prediction tool. Instead of throwing money towards developing dodgy and [19]racist AI and algorithms, the government must invest in genuinely supportive welfare services. Making welfare cuts while investing in techno-solutionist 'quick fixes' will only further undermine people's safety and wellbeing." ®
Get our [20]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.statewatch.org/news/2025/april/uk-ministry-of-justice-secretly-developing-murder-prediction-system/#_ftn17
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/08/uk-creating-prediction-tool-to-identify-people-most-likely-to-kill
[3] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955345/comparing-2-predictors-sexual-recidivism.pdf
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/07/home_office_apple_backdoor/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/20/greater_manchester_police_foi/
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1152995/escalation-severity-offending-behaviour.pdf
[11] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870188/trends-and-drivers-of-homicide-main-findings-horr113.pdf
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/04/encryption_backdoor_debate/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/25/google_sms_qr/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/06/in_brief_ai/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/29/in_brief_ai/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/19/twitter_machine_learning_image_cropping/
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/07/in_brief_ai/
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/11/ai_models_exhibit_racism_based/
[20] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
It was internally referred to as the Homicide Prediction Project, and was first discovered via Freedom of Information (FOI) requests filed by civil liberties group Statewatch, which [1]uncovered the project . More recently, the study was dubbed "the murder prediction program" by [2]The Guardian , which first reported the story.
Sources told The Register the project is an expansion of existing risk-prediction tools that are already used to predict the possibility of criminals reoffending when approaching prison release, for example. They said this is a long-established practice, with the Offender Assessment System (OASys) one example of this. Introduced in 2001, it uses data to predict reoffending rates and the OAS outcomes inform criminal sentencing and prison block categorizations, with recent [3]research [PDF] stating OASys-linked predictors can be reliable.
Theory or practice?
Critics, however, are concerned that the information used to develop the new "murder prediction" tool includes data on up to half a million people, some of whom are innocent of any crime, and are worried about its potential for bias.
And while officials insist this remains a research project only at present, and claim commentary around the discovery is over-sensationalized, Statewatch says its documents refer to the "future operationalization" of the system.
[4]
Statewatch went on to say the documents it obtained – an MoJ Data Protection Impact Assessment, an Internal Risk Assessment and a Data Sharing Agreement with Greater Manchester Police – referred to the MoJ's data science team developing models to understand "the powerful predictors in the data for homicide risk."
[5]
[6]
The Register has asked the MoJ for comment.
Project involves two largest police forces in the country
The project involves bringing new partners and data streams into the fold to fortify the data used by these models. Data from the MoJ, [7]Home Office , [8]Greater Manchester Police , and London's Metropolitan Police are all allegedly informing new predictors, while West Midlands Police was also approached.
According to Statewatch, types of data the homicide prediction project looks at include those related to: Suspects, victims, witnesses, missing people, people for whom there are safeguarding concerns, and other vulnerable individuals.
The MoJ documents stated that health marker data was expected to give "significant predictive power" to the models, with factors like mental health, addiction, self-harm, suicide, vulnerability, and disability all informing homicide predictions.
[9]
Previous data informing homicide predictions, [10]published in 2023 [PDF], looked at data such as ethnicity to predict offending rates. Data from [11]2020 [PDF] noted that the majority of UK homicide victims and suspects were white.
People of all ethnicities from more deprived areas as well as Black people specifically are "significantly over-represented" in the data the Ministry of Justice holds and used for this analysis of homicide, says Statewatch, which adds that data-driven "predictive" models discriminate against racialized communities, "reinforcing the structural discrimination of the criminal justice system."
Greater Manchester Police's internal data protection impact assessment (DPIA) of the project, obtained by Statewatch, shows the algorithms will incorporate police data such as names, dates of birth, genders, ethnicities, and police national computer (PNC) numbers to produce probabilistic matches.
[12]
It expected between 100,001 and 500,000 records to be processed as part of the project and the data was [13]encrypted at rest and in transfer, and [14]MFA was used to access relevant systems.
Commissioned by Rishi Sunak's government in January 2023, internal project timelines showed the research project was due to end in December 2024, at which point the research data would be deleted and the findings presented to stakeholders.
Statewatch researcher Sofia Lyall said the discovery of the Homicide Prediction Project is "chilling and dystopian."
"Time and again, research shows that algorithmic systems for 'predicting' crime are inherently flawed," she said. "Yet the government is pushing ahead with AI systems that will profile people as criminals before they've done anything.
[15]Facebook apologises after its AI system branded Black people as primates
[16]Leaked: List of police, govt, uni orgs in Clearview AI's facial-recognition trials
[17]Twitter: Our AI image-cropping algorithm is biased toward White people, women
[18]Surprise, surprise: AI cameras sold to schools in New York struggle with people of color and are full of false positives
"This latest model, which uses data from our institutionally racist police and Home Office, will reinforce and magnify the structural discrimination underpinning the criminal legal system. Like other systems of its kind, it will code in bias towards racialized and low-income communities. Building automated tools to profile people as violent criminals is deeply wrong, and using such sensitive data on mental health, addiction, and disability is highly intrusive and alarming.
"The Ministry of Justice must immediately halt further development of this murder prediction tool. Instead of throwing money towards developing dodgy and [19]racist AI and algorithms, the government must invest in genuinely supportive welfare services. Making welfare cuts while investing in techno-solutionist 'quick fixes' will only further undermine people's safety and wellbeing." ®
Get our [20]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.statewatch.org/news/2025/april/uk-ministry-of-justice-secretly-developing-murder-prediction-system/#_ftn17
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/apr/08/uk-creating-prediction-tool-to-identify-people-most-likely-to-kill
[3] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955345/comparing-2-predictors-sexual-recidivism.pdf
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/07/home_office_apple_backdoor/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2023/12/20/greater_manchester_police_foi/
[9] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[10] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1152995/escalation-severity-offending-behaviour.pdf
[11] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870188/trends-and-drivers-of-homicide-main-findings-horr113.pdf
[12] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/publicsector&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z_aZnOBUKLnCSPut5T-qJQAAAZU&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/04/encryption_backdoor_debate/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/25/google_sms_qr/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/06/in_brief_ai/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/29/in_brief_ai/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/19/twitter_machine_learning_image_cropping/
[18] https://www.theregister.com/2020/12/07/in_brief_ai/
[19] https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/11/ai_models_exhibit_racism_based/
[20] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Minority Report
Guy de Loimbard
That is all!! :)
Re: Minority Report
b0llchit
The pre-crime department has been rolling for some time now. Soon we will incarcerate all who are predicted to commit a crime. The country will be converted to a jail with strict gender separation. Few free-zones will be established to encompass the innocent. The entire problem is estimated to solve itself within 50..75 years or sooner with strict rationing and appropriate labour assignments.
You are already guilty...
spold
The Thought Police have decided. For your thoughtcrime you will be vapourised.
Re: You are already guilty...
Evil Auditor
If someone accuses me of any thoughtcrime, I will -without exception- commit a thoughtcrime. At the very least. It's a reflex.
Re: You are already guilty...
Paul Hovnanian
Whatever else you do, DO NOT think of elephants.
Re: You are already guilty...
b0llchit
The pink ones?
Word salad
may_i
What the hell are "racialized communities"?
Re: Word salad
razza de azzer
you dont want to know. At least not what Gemini Pro says about it
Probably a silly question
Eclectic Man
The data from the Metropolitan Police and Greater Manchester Police is from people who have come to the attention of the Police due to crimes, as suspects, witnesses or victims. Now, of course, if you are going to assess whether a murder is likely t be committed it is as well to identify a likely victim as a murderer. But, with recent history I wonder whether the data includes details of the Police Officers in each area and their social media postings? Wayne Cousins had the nickname 'the rapist' before he committed murder. Other Police officers have been in the news lately suspect or convicted of serious crimes.
What do you think?
The partment
elsergiovolador
Department is working or highly paid consultants supplied by mates?
Evil Auditor
Beware of looping effects*! Then again, this might malignantly be desired for it will confirm their accuracy.
* Ian Hacking, "The Looping Effects of Human Kinds", 1996
What a waste of money
nbc
A simpler solution would be to put boots back on the ground, engage with people and to listen to them. Everyone knows who the local bad apples are and what they're capable of, you just have to ask.
This could also be a good first step for Plod to regain some of the trust it has lost over the last twenty years.
Re: What a waste of money
m4r35n357
Unfortunately the "law & order" brigade, who will (in principle) agree with you 100%, are largely the same people as the "tax cuts over all" brigade, so this WILL happen because it looks cheaper.
Re: What a waste of money
cookieMonster
Unfortunately that is just waayyyyy too sensible
See https://forums.theregister.com/forum/all/2025/03/27/uk_facial_recognition/