NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting near-Earth asteroid
(2025/04/05)
- Reference: 1743837486
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/04/05/nasa_moon_asteroid/
- Source link:
The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon, during Christmas 2032, has more than doubled.
The space rock [1]made headlines in February when it was said to be the most dangerous object of its kind in the Solar System to Earth. Sadly, the chance of it whacking our home world was cut to 0.004 percent following further observations. Now scientists reckon there's nearly a one-in-25 chance of YR4 slamming into Earth's natural satellite.
"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 as of late February to 3.8 percent," the agency [2]said this week.
[3]
"There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit."
[4]
[5]
The asteroid was [6]spotted by an automatic telescope on Christmas Day last year, and its potential to smash into Earth was figured out a few days later. After its orbit was further studied, NASA [7]suggested the Moon could also get in its way, at first estimating the chance of lunar impact at 0.3 percent.
NASA has [8]been using the James Webb Space Telescope's NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) and MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) to check out 2024 YR4 to determine its size and composition. The results show this is a somewhat unusual visitor.
[9]NASA finds humanity would totally fumble asteroid defense
[10]Space dust reveals Earth-killer asteroids tough to destroy
[11]Scientists demonstrate X-rays as a way to zap asteroids out of Earth's path
[12]Truck-size asteroid makes one of the tightest fly-bys of Earth ever recorded
"We found that the thermal properties of 2024 YR4, in other words how quickly it heats up and cools down, and how hot it is at its current distance from the Sun, are not like what we see in larger asteroids," the JWST team [13]reported .
"We think this is likely a combination of its very fast spin and a lack of fine-grained sand on its surface. We’ll need more data to say for sure, but it seems consistent with a surface dominated by rocks that are maybe fist-sized or larger. And of course, our main goal was measuring the size of 2024 YR4, which we estimate at about 60 metres (200 feet)."
[14]
So what is going to happen when a rock that size slams into the Moon? Well, according to NASA not a lot. It will form a small crater, nothing the size of the largest lunar impact: The South Pole-Aitken basin.
Of course, in 2032 there may be a permanent human presence on the Moon, with both the US, Russia, and China planning to set up shop there in the future, and ESA is also investigating the possibilities. But even if 2024 YR4 does hit, the chances of humans being in danger would be infinitesimally small. Hopefully. ®
Get our [15]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/19/2024-yr4/
[2] https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
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[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/31/asteroid_earth_impact/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/17/asteroid_2024_yr4_might_hit/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/12/james_webb_asteroid_measuring/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/21/nasa_asteroid_defence/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/25/space_dust_asteroid/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/24/asteroid_zapping_x_ray_pulse/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/27/asteroid_2023_bu/
[13] https://webbtelescope.org/contents/early-highlights/nasas-webb-finds-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-building-sized
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
The space rock [1]made headlines in February when it was said to be the most dangerous object of its kind in the Solar System to Earth. Sadly, the chance of it whacking our home world was cut to 0.004 percent following further observations. Now scientists reckon there's nearly a one-in-25 chance of YR4 slamming into Earth's natural satellite.
"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 as of late February to 3.8 percent," the agency [2]said this week.
[3]
"There is still a 96.2 percent chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon. In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit."
[4]
[5]
The asteroid was [6]spotted by an automatic telescope on Christmas Day last year, and its potential to smash into Earth was figured out a few days later. After its orbit was further studied, NASA [7]suggested the Moon could also get in its way, at first estimating the chance of lunar impact at 0.3 percent.
NASA has [8]been using the James Webb Space Telescope's NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) and MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) to check out 2024 YR4 to determine its size and composition. The results show this is a somewhat unusual visitor.
[9]NASA finds humanity would totally fumble asteroid defense
[10]Space dust reveals Earth-killer asteroids tough to destroy
[11]Scientists demonstrate X-rays as a way to zap asteroids out of Earth's path
[12]Truck-size asteroid makes one of the tightest fly-bys of Earth ever recorded
"We found that the thermal properties of 2024 YR4, in other words how quickly it heats up and cools down, and how hot it is at its current distance from the Sun, are not like what we see in larger asteroids," the JWST team [13]reported .
"We think this is likely a combination of its very fast spin and a lack of fine-grained sand on its surface. We’ll need more data to say for sure, but it seems consistent with a surface dominated by rocks that are maybe fist-sized or larger. And of course, our main goal was measuring the size of 2024 YR4, which we estimate at about 60 metres (200 feet)."
[14]
So what is going to happen when a rock that size slams into the Moon? Well, according to NASA not a lot. It will form a small crater, nothing the size of the largest lunar impact: The South Pole-Aitken basin.
Of course, in 2032 there may be a permanent human presence on the Moon, with both the US, Russia, and China planning to set up shop there in the future, and ESA is also investigating the possibilities. But even if 2024 YR4 does hit, the chances of humans being in danger would be infinitesimally small. Hopefully. ®
Get our [15]Tech Resources
[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/19/2024-yr4/
[2] https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
[3] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[5] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[6] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/31/asteroid_earth_impact/
[7] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/17/asteroid_2024_yr4_might_hit/
[8] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/12/james_webb_asteroid_measuring/
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/06/21/nasa_asteroid_defence/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/25/space_dust_asteroid/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/24/asteroid_zapping_x_ray_pulse/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/27/asteroid_2023_bu/
[13] https://webbtelescope.org/contents/early-highlights/nasas-webb-finds-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-building-sized
[14] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z_D_QajMdzGtwhpCEP61jQAAA4M&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[15] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Doctor Syntax
Although it's unlikely to send it towards the Earth on that orbit immediately the encounter would perturb its orbit. What might happen after that remains to be seen.
Ian Johnston
Musk to the moon for 2032!
Pascal Monett
No.
Please send him off to Mars.
The Moon is way too close.
Impact
Eclectic Man
As our estimates of whether or not it will crash into the Moon improve, if there is a significant chance, this would be a very good opportunity to observe the impact both visually, from Moon orbiting satellites, and through seismographs on the lunar surface. Of course we would want a much better chance than currently estimated for the funds to be allocated for such a mission at the moment, but just think of the science!
So, Hollywood, when's the film ?
Pascal Monett
Come on, you can dream up a moonbase, get a few A-listers involved, have Samuel L Fucking Jackson as NASA director trying to avoid the catastrophe, and have the most glorious scientifically-accurate asteroid impact that just so happens to directly hit the moonbase.
A near miss on the moon is more likely than an actual impact and a near miss could do something very exotic to the asteroids impact. The moon's escape velocity isn't high enough to capture it so the moon won't get a moon. I'm also pretty sure it's not enough to send it back towards the Earth, but where it went could be exciting.