Trump tariffs forcing rethink of PC purchases stateside
- Reference: 1740663313
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/02/27/trump_tariffs_pc_purchases/
- Source link:
The man in the Oval Office has slapped an additional [1]10 percent tax on the Middle Kingdom, and as the vast majority of PCs are produced in China, this is likely to curtail volumes coming out of HP, Lenovo, Dell et al.
Why users still couldn't care less about Windows 11 [2]READ MORE
Acer, for example, has already [3]upped the price of its PCs in the US by 10 percent to compensate, and although the other big brands are so far less transparent on their intentions, it is inevitable that they will follow suit.
Jitesh Urbani, research manager at IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said: "Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs.
"However, the weakness among consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings, though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies."
[4]
The US PC market accounted for around one in four units sold in 2024, so it has a massive influence on the global numbers. With this in mind, IDC anticipates [5]273 million PCs being shifted into the channel worldwide this calendar year, up 2.1 percent on last, yet lower than the previous estimate.
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The tablet market is going to shrink by 0.8 percent – if the researcher is correct – to 143.3 million.
In 2025, consumers likely have other pressing issues dominating their household budget and are making do with their current device. Total PC and tablet retail shipments are on track to shrink 0.2 percent to 236.7 million units, according to IDC's current forecast.
[8]
In the enterprise, [9]Windows 10 goes out of support in October and businesses are refreshing their fleet of computers. Some large deals are being seen as customers migrate to Windows 11. HP and Dell said last year that [10]businesses were not bringing on upgrade cycles as quickly as they'd anticipated .
[11]HP ditches 15-minute wait time policy due to 'feedback'
[12]Copilot+ PCs? Customers just aren't buying it – yet
[13]Intel pitches modular PC designs to make repairs less painful
[14]Tariff uncertainty looms large over budget conscious CIOs
In a word of warning, IDC suspects some businesses might choose not to update their computers this year as "budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or [15]pay for extended Windows 10 support ."
It also points out that "AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch." This is down to a lack of a [16]killer application and the vastly higher-than-average sales prices, [17]almost 60 percent higher in Europe .
Despite the caveats, commercial PCs – excluding education – are forecast to jump 4.3 percent globally to 138 million boxes.
The education sector is expected to see a busy back-to-school period, following several years of relatively subdued spending, rising 6.7 percent to 41.7 million. Chromebooks featured heavily in this space before, and the US has accounted for upward of 70 percent of global sales.
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Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research, said he expects growth rates to "naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing."
The PC market expanded to 350 million shipments in 2021 as people rushed to buy devices to work, play, and socialize. Since then, the industry has shrunk. Many vendors are pinning their hopes on AI PCs to get things moving.
Good luck with that. ®
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[1] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/04/china_trump_google/
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/04/windows_11_avoidance/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/18/acer_hikes_us_prices/
[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z8CaNlT_NBH7OIo9fHstrwAAAc4&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[5] https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS53223325
[6] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z8CaNlT_NBH7OIo9fHstrwAAAc4&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z8CaNlT_NBH7OIo9fHstrwAAAc4&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[8] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44Z8CaNlT_NBH7OIo9fHstrwAAAc4&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[9] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/14/final_year_windows_10/
[10] https://www.theregister.com/2024/09/13/win_11_refreshes_delayed_pc_makers/
[11] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/21/hp_ditches_15_minute_wait_time_call_centers/
[12] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/06/ai_copilot_pc_sales/
[13] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/23/intel_modular_pc_designs/
[14] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/21/cio_value_budget_tariffs/
[15] https://www.theregister.com/2024/10/31/microsoft_windows_10_support/
[16] https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/18/analysts_2024_ai_pcs/
[17] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/06/ai_copilot_pc_sales/
[18] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_onprem/personaltech&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33Z8CaNlT_NBH7OIo9fHstrwAAAc4&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0
[19] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Education
I hate to point this out but most educational needs* can be met with pencil, paper and paper books/a library.
It worked petty well (arguably better) for the last 500yr or so and wasn't subject to subscriptions, maintenance contracts, wifi, battery longevity, obscelecence, data theft etc.
Paper notebooks are pretty resilient to damage as well even surviving the odd dunk in the loo or a chew by the family pet.
I'm well aware our yoofs need to be aware of the internet and apps and technology but I think largely getting to grips with the basics of langugage, mathematics, research and congnative thought may well be done better in a low tech way first and bring the tech in on top of that established basic knowledge.
*Yes I am aware that tech provides services to children with additional needs in ways that could not be done before but my blanket statement above was referring to the average bog standard kid.
Re: Education
"..average bog standard kid".
You can't just be average any more, you have to give at least 110% if not more.....
Re: Education
I fully agree that a pencil and paper are most of what you need for education, but there is one other thing needed:- textbooks. Unfortunately, schools are finding it cheaper to give children access to online textbooks than to lend them a proper paper book, so in the UK at least, we're stuck with computers in education unless budgets increase.
Re: Education
And I agree books were a major cost to schools, but I suspect the costs associated with ubiquitous IT are considerably higher over time. Books did need to be replaced but many texts would last and be usable for many years (basic maths and science don't change much).
Re: Education
"Books were a major cost to schools."
The exorbitant cost of textbooks was/is the textbook publishers taking their pounds of flesh from a largely captive market - the printers and authors not so much. Still pretty much the case with scientific publishing.
University students mostly cannot afford textbooks so courses mostly don't specify required texts but refer to library reserve holdings, lecturer's online notes and paper handouts as well as online material available from the likes of MIT.
I am wondering whether some the various fairly decent textbooks that authors/copyright holders have donated as etexts to the world could with their consent be printed cheaply in volume in a student edition paperback format. India up until the 90s used to print local only editions of major science and math etc textbooks for less than a USD1.00 (at the time.) Back then I picked up a few that had escaped India, from second bookshops in AU (particularly the now long gone SKOOB Books†.)
A lot of the English literature resources used in schools are public domain and available from Gutenberg, Fadedpage etc which could be reset and printed.
† Nearly fifty years later the Dianetics mob opposite are still there peddling their codswallop. "Lest one good custom should corrupt the world."
Who will pay the tariffs?
Obviously, US consumers will have to pay for these 10% tariffs. As other countries are hit with even higher tariffs, eg, Europe, Mexico, Canada, there will be not that much alternatives.
Which means, less sales and upgrades for US brands, and higher prices for US consumers (inflation is already at 3%). Not like the egg prices ($8 and up per dozen), but still, not what our Most Stable Genius predicted.
Re: Price of eggs
Some of that price comes from bird flu. The good news is that the US's new efficient government will soon not report any cases of bird flu. With that excuse dealt with the Trump regime will have to look elsewhere. Perhaps they will fire all chickens still in the probationary period of their employment. They will get rid of any chickens hired under DEI policies. LGBTQ will be sent to compulsory conversion therapy and all brown chickens will be deported.
Re: Who will pay the tariffs?
My guess the downward pressure on sales volumes from the increased prices will mean the tariffs collected won't offset the knock on economic damage. There sre whole industries built on shifting cheap imported tat which could well fold.
"Most Stable Genius"
MSG aka Vetsin to which many have a sometimes severe allergic reaction.
Muttering Senile Geriatric probably a more accurate description.
USD8.00/doz. that is more than AUD10.00/doz. and we too have bird flu and supply shortages but a dozen barnyard eggs is a little above AUD5.00 ~ USD4.00.
Ironically the producers point out that if the eggs were still produced from the phased out battery hens the avian flu wouldn't have infected those chooks but now the free range and barnyard chooks can come into contact with native birdlife carrying the virus.
Buy today!
There will be more tariffs applicable tomorrow...
opportunity knocking
Any PC/Laptop/tablet/AiO purveyor that can rejig their supply chain and divest some of the PCs they produce in India, Mexico, Brazil and other non-china places fromtheir current markets to the USoA will make a killing in terms of $ and in terms of market share.
The % of those PCs that that were divested tothe USoA from their natural markets can then be supplied by china, as those countries hardly have tariffs...
JM2C YMMV