Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth creep upward
- Reference: 1739972715
- News link: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2025/02/19/2024-yr4/
- Source link:
NASA has upped the chances to 3.1 percent, while the European Space Agency (ESA) now estimates it's 2.8 percent. This was expected as the close approach uncertainty narrowed with further observations. The threat will likely drop considerably as possible trajectories are ruled out and the risk corridor shrinks.
However, time is growing short. By April, the asteroid will no longer be viewable by most telescopes, making it impossible for scientists to refine the object's orbit further. It will not come back into view again until 2028.
[1]
Although the probability of collision is still very small, and observatories such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) are being pressed into service to refine estimates of the size and mass of the asteroid, space agencies will no doubt ponder how best to deflect it should the worst-case scenario – a high-energy impact – become more likely.
[2]Space rock 2024 YR4 still has 2.4% shot at smacking Earth
[3]There's a slight chance Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Moon in 2032
[4]James Webb Space Telescope to size up asteroid 2024 YR4 before it rocks our world
[5]Asteroid as wide as 886 cans of spam may hit Earth in 2032
Scientists calculating trajectories and devising potential asteroid-defense missions will also not welcome distractions – such as NASA's recently [6]reported plans to terminate more than 1,000 probationary employees, which was swiftly reversed yesterday.
It seems likely that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Earth will continue to increase as the uncertainty region closes. With luck, the precariousness surrounding at least one space agency will also have been cleared up before long. ®
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[1] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2Z7YOMs-50EBNIS38RKtWVwAAAYw&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0
[2] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/18/2024_yr4_risk_corridor/
[3] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/17/asteroid_2024_yr4_might_hit/
[4] https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/12/james_webb_asteroid_measuring/
[5] https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/31/asteroid_earth_impact/
[6] https://www.planetary.org/press-releases/statement-opposing-probationary-layoffs
[7] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/
Re: Don't Look Up
I am cheering for Bronterocs then.
Re: Don't Look Up
It will only cause a 8 megaton blast, and we can already predict that if it hits Earth it will hit either africa or india.
Re: Don't Look Up
Maybe the Indian space programme can take giant step for mankind by making sure it doesn't hit India. Maybe redirect it to some wasteland that won't matter if it's obliterated, like Mar-A-Lardo, FL.
Re: Don't Look Up
With all the outsourcing, we're stuffed if it hits Mumbai, Chennai or Bangalore then.
> It's probably fine
If someone rolls a natural 20, that headline is going to look real old, real fast.
Oh no, I seen' how THIS one ends too!
"I was just a child when the stars fell from the skies, but I remember how they built a cannon to destroy them. And in turn, how that cannon brought war upon us."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRiX-YntGuU
(yes, I know the 2% chance but it's deeply funny that this shit happens now.)
Re: Oh no, I seen' how THIS one ends too!
Stonehenge? Also features in AC:7
"The threat will likely drop considerably as possible trajectories are ruled out and the risk corridor shrinks."
It might also increase considerably if more missing trajectories are ruled out.
"It's probably fine"
This is starting to sound like the Buggarup regatta - no worries, she'll be right!
The end of the world?
Oh well, as long as you feel good about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY
But here in Europe* we're having something else:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw&lc=z132s5dgynyxsbaan04cgx5ittfcghsz3og0k
*Did you see what I did there? Europe the continent vs the pop group? Oh never mind, I'll just talk amongst myself.
DOGE avoidance strategy...
Smacks of desperation, trying to justify their existence in the face of a major government efficiency drive.
Re: DOGE avoidance strategy...
It's either sad that you think this is desperation on the part of NASA, or that there is a major government efficiency drive rather than one of the Orange One's investors trying to maximise his ROI on $275m invested!
------------> I'm having a bad day today, and just want it to be over.
Re: DOGE avoidance strategy...
Speaking of the Orange Felon in Chef, I'd say He's probably just holding NASA hostage to a quid pro quo cooperation arranged by Giuliani and Barr at this stage, to produce forged documents implicating [1]Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden in the conspiracy theory that is asteroid 2024 YR4.
He'll release the congressionally-mandated $400 million when NASA agrees to kneel to his ill will, otherwise he'll side with Putin, Russia, Roscosmos, and SpaceX, to have them invade NASA through DOGE as retaliation, and split the corresponding loot among themselves!
It's all [2]NASA's fault anyways ...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/19/trump-ukraine-war-russia-could-have-made-a-deal
Re: DOGE avoidance strategy...
Yep, it'll be NASA's fault for not doing a deal with the asteroid when it last passed by.
Re: DOGE avoidance strategy...
The asteroid won't hit Earth, Earth will hit the asteroid, and it will all be the fault of the Europeans who probably launched the asteroid in the first place...
Fine.
When my wife says fine I know I'm in trouble.
Orange
Imagine if the asteroid hit the orange anchor right in his stupid face.
Don't Look Up
With each new bit of news from American politics, I can't help but feel we're going to experience an exact repeat of this movie in real life. It proved that you cannot entrust space travel to private corporations and that the billionaires will try to make a buck and skip the planet if it fails before they try to keep us safe.