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SpaceX's Starlink: Overhyped and underpowered to meet broadband needs of Rural America, say analysts

(2021/04/09)


SpaceX's Starlink has been described as the solution to dismal rural broadband. Like any project linked to Elon Musk, the satellite internet constellation is surrounded by a thick cloud of hype. But is it justified?

Analyst house MoffetNathanson isn't sure. A [1]new report published earlier this week expressed doubts about Starlink's ability to cover the US market in its current form, citing the bandwidth concerns and end-user consumption rates.

[2]

The outfit suggested Starlink's total addressable market, based on the company reaching its lofty goals to [3]deploy 12,000 satellites , hovers between just 300,000 and 800,000 households.

Part of the problem, MoffetNathanson claimed, is that there aren't enough satellites, and they aren't pointing in the right direction. With around a third of Starlink's satellites earmarked for the US (roughly 4,000), each at an incline of 53 degrees, the analysts reckon just 3 per cent of the total available capacity will be visible to the Southern US at any point.

[4]

And then there's consumption. During peak hours, the average US household uses 2.2 to 2.7Mbps of bandwidth during peak hours. That's likely to increase in the coming years, based on the growth of remote working and rise of 4K video. By contrast, each SpaceX satellite, based on current specifications, has a capacity of 17-23Gbps.

Combined, these factors limit SpaceX's ability to deploy a proper, nationwide broadband service. Of course, one could always argue that Starlink was never really a mass-market product.

Although Starlink handily cleans the floor when faced with conventional ADSL and dial-up connections, it's not cheap. Customers pay a $499 setup fee for the receiver dish, which costs SpaceX $1,300 to manufacture. The ongoing $99 subscription free will deter some in rural areas, too.

Although federal subsidies will make the product more widely accessible, SpaceX has faced opposition on this front, with the CEO of the Fiber Broadband Association, Gary Bolton, arguing that the product is an inefficient use of resources.

"As a matter of fact, a LEO [satellite] falls out of the sky in five years," [5]Bolton told a telecom news site . "There is never a circumstance where satellite (LEO or geostationary) [broadband] should be subsidized with taxpayer dollars."

But don't count SpaceX out just yet. In 2019, the firm requested authorisation from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to obtain enough spectrum to deploy 30,000 satellites – a more than doubling of its current planned constellation.

Just yesterday, it [6]hefted a payload of 60 Starlink satellites on a Falcon 9 that lifted off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station at at 12:34 Eastern (16:34 UTC). Musk's space firm currently has 1,200 Starlink satellites in orbit.

[7]

Additionally, future launches will operate at a lower orbit, extending coverage further. And the company is experimenting with laser-based internet working between satellites, which, if used widely, should increase the maximum possible capacity. ®

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[1] https://www.moffettnathanson.com/Login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fresearch.aspx%3fSection%3dMedia%2b%252fTelecom%26GUID%3dcc55705e-d078-438c-9877-297b7e0aa17d

[2] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=2&c=2YHDOegR5C@o5nrSgaFZwVwAAAIs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D2%26raptor%3Dcondor%26pos%3Dtop%26test%3D0

[3] https://www.theregister.com/2018/11/15/communications_satellites_fcc/

[4] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=3&c=33YHDOegR5C@o5nrSgaFZwVwAAAIs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D3%26raptor%3Deagle%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[5] https://www.telecompetitor.com/aaia-act-would-award-80b-for-gigabit-broadband-fba-calls-for-fiber-first/

[6] https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1379851411840593925?

[7] https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/jump?co=1&iu=/6978/reg_offbeat/science&sz=300x50%7C300x100%7C300x250%7C300x251%7C300x252%7C300x600%7C300x601&tile=4&c=44YHDOegR5C@o5nrSgaFZwVwAAAIs&t=ct%3Dns%26unitnum%3D4%26raptor%3Dfalcon%26pos%3Dmid%26test%3D0

[8] https://whitepapers.theregister.com/

Anonymous Coward

It's unlikely to be "no cap". Don't know how the Musk-idolizers, who are generally no-cap believers, are going to deal with the psychological contradictions of that. One solution would be a return to reading literature instead of watching movies & TV, and playing online low-bandwidth board games like checkers, backgammon, and chess, instead of the more modern multi-player action games. Those who feel that is too constraining can pack up and head out to Mars frontier, where there is likely be less demand for bandwidth.

And the point is?

Yet Another Anonymous coward

This isn't as fast as running fibre to every last cabin in the woods

But since we can't seem to run non-lead water pipes to city centers, or transit to anywhere it's unlikely that rural America is going to become Singapore anytime soon

So yes, don't say we don't need any infrastructure spend because they can just use Starlink - but also don't block Starlink because it can't do 4k Netflix to everybody outside downtown SF

LASERS !!!

don't you hate it when you lose your account

I suspect Mr Musk is setting up a blockade of earth. Where's Mr Bond when you need him.

£500 million

Fruit and Nutcase

will no doubt be found down the back of a sofa in No.10 to offer Musk to re-purpose these for GNSS

Monkey Business

Fruit and Nutcase

Like any project linked to Elon Musk, the satellite internet constellation is surrounded by a thick cloud of hype.

Well, here's another of his projects in the news...

"Neuralink video appears to show monkey controlling game paddle simply by thinking"

[1]https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/09/elon-musk-neuralink-monkey-video-game

Note: The picture accompanying the article is not a picture of an actual monkey with a Neuralink implant

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/09/elon-musk-neuralink-monkey-video-game

What's the problem?

Will Godfrey

He's providing a service where nobody else is even prepared to look. If it was just 56k it would be better than the alternative.

Limited resource

vtcodger

It's Musky, so of course it's overhyped. But I'm extremely skeptical that the average rural household actually needs 2-plus Mbps per second bandwidth just to watch some TV and support some work activities. Won't do 4K video? So what? Maybe rural users have to settle for moderate resolution. Or download the HiRes stuff in the middle of the night and view later. And at least the latency should be tolerable for most users.

You've got a resource limited by availability. Try allocating it intelligently (for a change). I know. I know. Applying intelligence isn't how we do things in this best of all possible worlds. But perhaps if we tried it, we'd find that it doesn't work all that badly.

Bus error -- driver executed.